More knots than quotes: an underdetermined curve fit against the bootstrap

Out of sample, an underdetermined curve fit’s median and tail errors are at or below both bootstraps’ in every window and currency I tested, and its lead is largest on the front end when the market is pricing scheduled central-bank decisions. Seven windows of OIS curves, 2019 to 2025.

13 October 2026 · 22 min · Fabien Huré